The world is so complex that it is impossible to know in advance which products, services, or ideas will really capture people’s attention. Even if you believe with 100% certainty something will succeed - the timing of when it will ultimately click is impossible to know.
I’ve noticed two outliers that found their outsized success in a similar pattern - by exposing themselves to an unusually large flow of information in their area of interest and going all in with that inside information.
Before John D. Rockefeller was the Standard Oil tycoon we all know, he was first a bookkeeper (seeing the details of client’s books) then proprietor of a distribution company specializing in grain and produce with his partner Maurice Clark. Clark & Rockefeller set up shop opposite Main Street in Cleveland, OH and expanded to Clark, Rockefeller, & CO bringing on additional partners to go into the oil business which they knew from their existing operation was starting to be a critical industry.
Brian Epstein was a merchant in Liverpool in the 50s and 60s running a record shop called NEMS. People kept ordering or asking about a local band called The Beatles. He had never managed a band before but thought the boys were tremendous after seeing them play at The Cavern Club. They signed their first 5 year management agreement in 1961. All of the band members were under 21 years old so had to get their parent’s permission! On 1 October 1962, four days before the release of "Love Me Do", Epstein signed Lennon and McCartney to a three-year NEMS publishing contract and the group went on to worldwide fame and fortune.
There are specific jobs and roles that put you in the flow of people and ideas by their nature. Venture capitalist, journalist, distributor, merchant, and media executive come to mind. Folks in these roles and others can pay attention to a wide array of trends and use that knowledge to double down on what has started reacting. Luck and timing play a critical role (A distributor in business in the 1860s right near where oil was discovered in 1859! A record store owner in the 1960s in Liverpool!) but it seems you can tilt the odds slightly more in your favor if you can find a way to increase the flow of new products, ideas, and behaviors that you are exposed to.